ถูกใจเพจแล้ว · 3 พฤษภาคม 2015 · มีการแก้ไข ·
20. นักเสแสร้งผู้ยิ่งใหญ่ (The Great Pretender)
ผมเขียนวิจารณ์นโยบายการเงินของธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทยภาคฝรั่ง ยอมรับว่ามีเสแสร้งหน่อย ลงตีพิมพ์ในThe Nationฉบับวันแรงงานลองอ่านดู:
BOT's DOUBLE-BARRELLED AIM is poor if it wants to spur growth
The Bank of Thailand yesterday sprang a surprise by bringing down its benchmark interest rate from 1.75 to 1.5 per cent. It was a second time in a short period that its Monetary Policy Committee has cut the rate to stimulate economic growth.
Is the Bank of Thailand overreacting?
The rate cut comes at a time when the economy has been showing signs of a slowdown. Exports have also lost their shine, registering minus growth of around 4 per cent in the first quarter of this year. This has prompted growing concern that the economy could lose momentum again. As a result, Bank of Thailand officials have mulled measures to further weaken the baht to boost exports by encouraging capital outflow. Capital will be allowed to flow out of the country more freely, specifically to help weaken the baht.
Most analysts were taken off guard by the bank's aggressive monetary policy. The rate had already been cut at the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.
They had expected the bank to let that reduction gradually do its work, given the time lag involved, before mounting another cut if things didn't improve.
But rate cuts approved at two consecutive meetings signal that the authorities must be very concerned with the overall outlook on the economy, with the risks of export growth moving into negative territory and economic growth marked down sharply again.
But we all know that Thailand's economic ills can't be solved by monetary policy alone. The structural problems of our economy - inefficiencies in fiscal spending, weak private-sector investment, lack of improvement in the manufacturing process, not enough cost-cutting and high household debt - must all be tackled at their sources.
Throwing cheap money after structural problems won't rescue us from the economic malaise.
There is danger in the authorities' focus on monetary tools to tackle these structural problems.
First, the interest rate level creates dissavings (negative savings). People won't save their money because it earns very little interest, so the money instead flows into unproductive sectors, such as real estate and stock speculation.
Second, weakening the baht - a policy that goes hand in hand with the low-interest-rate policy - will raise the cost of living for the poor and those with fixed incomes. Thailand still faces inflationary pressure arising from growth in money supply and credit. Real inflation should have been pegged higher, at 5 per cent or more, rather than as a negative, as officially reported.
Without taking into account the growth in money supply and credit, we will never get at the real figure of inflation, which destroys the value of the baht and drives up the cost of living. Still, the authorities hold that there is no risk of high inflation at this point, with it amounting to minus-0.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Thus it justifies further rate cuts.
Third, by cutting the rate in a hurry and weakening the baht, the authorities are handing out more chocolate to exporters and manufacturers.
These sectors should instead improve the quality of their products or cut their costs to stay competitive, rather than relying on macroeconomic policy to gain or maintain advantage. As mentioned, low interest rates create dissavings, and a weak baht drives up the cost of living and the cost of imports.
Fourth, once the authorities overreach in their monetary policy, they will have no ammunition left when they really need it.
The Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are cases in point. They have all overreached their mandate by lowering the rate to zero per cent and keeping it there for a long time.
The unprecedented zero-interest-rate environment has spilled into the bond market to create negative bond yields. It undermines pricing in the financial markets, not to mention creating a disparity in income between those who have access to financial and hard assets and the poor.
Most important of all, a zero interest rate destroys the value of the currency and will bring about hyperinflation at a later stage.
Do we want to follow in the footstep of the Bank of Japan, the Fed and the ECB, relying on zero interest to buy time because their governments won't allow the "too big to fail" banks and corporations to die from natural causes?
The Bank of Thailand's utmost objectives are to defend the value of the baht and manage price stability. Instead, what it is doing now will destroy the value of the baht and invite the inflation that's looming on the horizon to hit the general populace.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion ... 59094.html
https://www.facebook.com/ThanongFanclub ... =1&theater